Two forecasts have been released for the 2023 hurricane season. Colorado State University has released its first hurricane forecast for 2023, predicting 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, including 2 major hurricanes. The University of Arizona hurricane forecasting team predicts nine hurricanes this year, five of which are expected to be major hurricanes. Historically, the average number of hurricanes per year has been seven.
NOAA releases its hurricane forecast closer to the start of the hurricane season.
1 https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html
The Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1 and ends November 30. The Eastern North Pacific hurricane season starts May 15 but ends on the same day as the Atlantic hurricane season, November 30.
There is a high probability that El Niño will develop later this year. If/when it does this can lead to warmer ocean temperatures and more precipitation in the central to eastern Pacific Ocean. During El Niño the east winds are weaker than normal. This often results in fewer hurricanes that form in the Atlantic Ocean.
On the other hand, the tropical Atlantic Ocean temperature is expected to be very warm this season. This tends to encourage hurricane development.
Since these two conditions foster opposite outcomes, updated forecasts later this year may reflect the strengthening of one condition over the other.
Regardless of the forecast, it’s best to prepare ahead of the hurricane season in case a hurricane heads your way. (Remember that hurricanes do not read the forecasts, nor do they like to be too predictable!) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recommends creating an evacuation plan, stoking up on supplies, checking sooner rather than later on your insurance—especially if you want flood insurance, which has a 30-day waiting period—creating an inventory of your belongings, sharing your plans with other family members and modifying your property to make it more hurricane proof, if possible.
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